Pullbacks in Bonds Futures

The Bonds futures markets are great for investors who want to diversify their trading. For those, this edge will be of great help when creating a trading system!

Edge Details

Market: 30 Yr US Treasury Bond

Security:

US

Access Level:

Gold

Profit Factor: 1.65

Avg. Trade: $324

Win Percent: 66%

Trades: 450

A Closer Look

This edge trades the 30-year treasury bonds futures contract (US). This is a market that goes well with the index markets, such as the S&P, to create a more well-diversified portfolio.

The bond market is known for its long term bullish trend. Therefore, many trading edges only go long. This edge goes both long and short, giving traders the opportunity to also profit from a potential future bearish scenario!

The entry consists only of two conditions! Combining that with the fact that the short and long logics are symmetrical (however with different inputs), this is an edge that holds good potential for further testing!

Here is the very same edge, with the exact same parameters, applied to the TY futures market. I’ve loaded data as far back as Tradestation allows.

The edge has managed to perform for nearly 20 years! There also is a great sample size of 800 trades!

All in all, this is a great edge that showcases a major behaviour of the US futures market. With a little tweaking, this could definitely become a great strategy that makes good money!

The edge is composed of:

  1. A Volume Condition
  2. A Price Pattern
  3. A Custom Exit

1. A Volume Filter

Having little or much volume is sometimes crucial to the performance of an edge. With this filter, we put volume into an indicator to filter out bad trades!

2. A Price Pattern

Even if there only is the high, the close, the low, and the open of a bar, there are countless of price patterns. This particular logic is symmetrical for long and short entries. However, it uses two inputs, since this market behaves slightly different when going up than down!

3. A Custom exit

Exactly as with the entry, the logic to buytocover or sell is symmetrical.

The logic compares today’s close to historic closes to find the optimal time to exit.

How Does It Work?

This edge is of the mean-reverting type. That means that it tries to identify when the price has moved excessively in one direction and is about to turn around. Therefore the criteria are aimed at identifying these types of situations.

Logic

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