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Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Time Horizons

Last Updated on 10 February, 2024 by Rejaul Karim

The paper “Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Time Horizons,” authored by Valeriy Zakamulin, offers intriguing insights into the predictability of the small stock premium, presenting a compelling case for its forecastability using lagged macroeconomic variables.

Delving into the in-sample and out-of-sample predictability, the study establishes the feasibility of forecasting the size premium across varying time horizons, from the short-term to the long-term.

Notably, the findings showcase the potential for portfolio managers to generate substantial active alpha, underscoring the economic and statistical significance of this predictability. With a focus on the size effect, size premium, stock return predictability, and active alpha, this paper presents a thought-provoking perspective on the dynamics of stock market forecasting, offering valuable implications for investment strategies across different timeframes.

Abstract Of Paper

In this paper, we provide evidence that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample through the use of a set of lagged macroeconomic variables. We find that it is possible to forecast the size premium over time horizons that range from one month to one year. We demonstrate that the predictability of the size premium allows a portfolio manager to generate an economically and statistically significant active alpha.

Original paper – Download PDF

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Author

Valeriy Zakamulin
University of Agder – School of Business and Law

Conclusion

The research presented in “Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Time Horizons,” authored by Valeriy Zakamulin, culminates in a compelling demonstration of the predictability of the small stock premium.

Through the utilization of lagged macroeconomic variables, the study adeptly establishes the feasibility of forecasting the size premium over varying periods, encompassing both short-term and longer-term horizons.

Moreover, the significance of this predictability is underscored by its capacity for portfolio managers to generate substantive active alpha, carrying far-reaching economic and statistical implications.

This insightful conclusion not only enhances our understanding of the size effect, size premium, stock return predictability, and active alpha but also furnishes valuable guidance for investment strategies across different temporal landscapes.

Related Reading:

When Low Beats High: Riding the Sales Seasonality Premium

Seasonality in the Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns

FAQ

What is the main focus of the paper “Forecasting the Size Premium Over Different Time Horizons”?

The paper focuses on the predictability of the small stock premium, examining its forecastability across various time horizons. The study explores the use of lagged macroeconomic variables for both in-sample and out-of-sample predictions, providing insights into the dynamics of the size premium in the stock market.

What does the paper reveal about the predictability of the size premium, and over what time horizons is it explored?

The paper reveals that the small stock premium is predictable both in-sample and out-of-sample. The predictability extends across different time horizons, ranging from one month to one year. This implies that there are discernible patterns and relationships that allow for forecasting the size premium over various temporal landscapes.

How does the predictability of the size premium contribute to portfolio management, and what is the significance of the active alpha mentioned in the conclusion?

The predictability of the size premium is shown to have practical implications for portfolio managers. The study suggests that portfolio managers can leverage the predictability to generate active alpha, which is both economically and statistically significant. This implies that by incorporating forecasts of the size premium into investment strategies, portfolio managers have the potential to achieve meaningful excess returns beyond what would be expected from passive investment strategies.

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